The MLP Index produced 6.6% total return in July, the best July since 2010. Looking ahead, August has been negative in each of the last 3 years and 7 of the last 9. For the MLP rally to continue, the stocks would need to counter these seasonal headwinds that typically restrain MLP buying late in the summer.
Month: July 2018
Week Thoughts: More Midstream Momentum
Midstream outpaced the broad market and posted a fourth straight positive week. MLPs again led the way, with a 1.5% gain. The MLP Index is up 4.7% over those 4 weeks. The Alerian Midstream Energy Index (AMNA), the most inclusive midstream index, was up 0.9% and has posted a year over year total return of 0.1%, slightly ahead the Alerian MLP Index.
Week Thoughts: OMG! FERC TBT 4 MLPs
Midstream stocks, led by MLPs, were positive for a third straight week. After starting slow, things turned around Wednesday when oil reversed intra-day. Then Thursday, the MLP Index rallied 2.5% after the final FERC ruling generated big excitement around some beaten down FERC-impacted and some additional excitement for MLPs broadly.
Week Thoughts: MLPs Green with Anticipation
Midstream had a decent week, highlighted by the MLP Index outperforming U.S. and Canadian midstream corporations and breaking back into positive total return territory year to date. MLPs traded up despite weakness in commodity prices and in utilities. On Monday, in particular, MLP action was encouraging when the UTY was drubbed for a 3% loss and the MLP Index was positive.
Week Thoughts: Delayed Fuse
In a rising broad market and a mixed commodity price backdrop, midstream stocks traded up but lagged the S&P 500 and utilities this week. Recent midstream corporation and utility outperformance has helped the Alerian Energy Infrastructure Index (AMEI) cut into the YTD lead the Alerian MLP Index has maintained since the MLP spike in January.
Week Thoughts: Red, White, Midstream Blues
Midstream had a disappointing week overall. Like last week, oil prices ramped up (albeit with strong backwardation) and MLPs under-performed broader energy stocks and utilities. The AMZ tracked the S&P 500 with a 1.4% decline, while the AMEI outperformed due to its exposure to Canadian midstream and utilities. Broader stock market weakness was likely a factor, along with the MLP Index re-balance and some capital markets activity in a generally thin midstream equity market these days.
First Half Midstream Returns: Factor Debrief
We are officially finished with a pretty wild first half of the year. As such, I thought it appropriate to break down midstream returns based on several different factors that I believe have been driving relative performance within the sector this year.