Midstream stocks bounced back early in the week after two rough weeks, but then as the market rolled over later in the week, midstream and MLPs were dragged back down. U.S. midstream corporations traded better than MLPs, helping the AMUS trade better than AMZ, a steady trend after the initial bounce off the March bottom. Midstream finished positive overall, besting utilities and the S&P 500.
Oil prices were very strong, but on the strongest days, midstream stocks didn’t trade well. Natural gas prices were very soft in the front month, so shoulder season oversupply is posing a near-term challenge for traders.
Midstream Beyond Petroleum?
BP’s three-day event early in the week received extensive media coverage. Key takeaways: oil demand seen as likely peaked or peaking soon, with demand potentially never fully recovering from COVID-19 demand shock. Gas demand remains in long-term growth mode. Pricing action this week in each commodity ran counter to this long-term view.
The topic of renewables from last week was a popular topic among sell-side research analysts this week. As discussed here last week, as a hedge against declining expectations for terminal value for midstream assets, there is a case to be made that well-capitalized midstream players should consider investing in renewables.
With stock price performance being so weak over the last 5 years, it’s hard to see stocks trading worse if midstream were to strategically deploy some capital towards renewable development. One small MLP in the propane distribution business (SPH) announced a nominal investment in that direction this week and traded well. But it seems unlikely that we see others following in the near-term. Large natural gas pipeline heavy midstream corporations like TRP, ENB, KMI, and WMB seem best positioned to initiate discussions on green hydrogen potential or other renewable investment efforts.
SPAC Surplus, Midstream Investor Shortage
We are not building new pipelines due to over-capacity and over-regulation. We are not making any more MLPs because of underperformance and disenfranchised investor base. But we sure are making SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). There are so many SPACs being formed and preparing for IPOs, it feels very similar to the fervor around MLP IPOs back in the early 2010s. After poor outcomes from midstream SPAC deals (like ALTM), midstream SPACs are not coming back.
In a world of extreme enthusiasm around growth stocks, SPACs and green hydrogen, there just isn’t much room left for the market to generate enthusiasm for midstream stocks with depressed oil and natural gas prices ahead of an election and tax loss selling season. That’s how you get nearly 11% yield for EPD and 11%+ yield for MMP. Institutional fund outflows appear to be ongoing, and retail investors are fatigued after disappointing effort to buy midstream stocks low only to see them trade lower.
Midstream (AMNA) is down 4.2% so far in September and down 3.0% for the quarter to date. A strong week or two could see 3Q finishing positive, which would feel like a big win after a rough September so far. But if the broad market stumbles in 4Q, it feels like it could be very challenging for midstream to build positive momentum. So, as has been the case all too often since 2014, midstream optimists can start to extend that hope to the January effect of a fresh year.
